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Since 2018, St. John, Crown Point, and Cedar Lake combined gained about 13,500 residents. I wonder how many of those are ex-Illinois versus those who merely moved within NWIN. Our experience in St. John is that the overwhelming majority of new residents are from Illinois and continue to work there, trading a somewhat longer commute for lower taxes, larger homes, and in many cases, better schools. While they do pay IN county tax, their state income tax on wages and salaries remains in Illinois. Given that the total net domestic migration you note is just a bit more than 4000, I believe that we still are seeing NWIN residents moving away at a fairly good clip.

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Yes, NET domestic migration doesn't give us any information about the level/scale of migration, just the net difference between in- and out-migration. We could have a lot of migration in and out of Lake County but if the scale of both are similar then net migration would be small. We can get better information about the total numbers in each direction, but it's a bit more complicated and the data is less current (the most recent data goes up only until 2019) and since it's estimated in a different way it doesn't match perfectly with the annual data I shared above.

However, what these data show is that between 2015 and 2019:

(a) 22,292 people moved into Lake County, IN from some other US county.

(b) 22,687 people out of Lake County, IN to some other US county.

So there is a much larger number of people moving in and out of Lake county than that the net migration numbers reveal.

We can also dig a bit more into WHERE the people moving INTO Lake County are coming from. Between 2015 and 2019, of the 22,292 people who moved into Lake County:

(a) 53% (11,778 people) came from Illinois, which was the largest state source.

(b) 41% (9,192 people) came from Cook County Illinois specifically, which was the largest single county source.

So, yes, your experience is very much consistent with the data. There are a LOT of people moving into Lake County coming from Illinois and specifically Cook County, Illinois. However, during this period there were more that moved away.

While I have only anecdotal evidence like yours, as you say, I suspect the vast majority of those moving into Lake County are choosing to locate in the towns you listed (St. John, Crown Point and Cedar Lake). Someone living in one of these towns would likely be seeing a disproportionate share of the migration into the county (and probably not seeing as much of the also very large out-migration).

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Wow, that's like the entire population of St. John during those years moving in and out in that 4 year period.

Yes, we definitely see the migration in. As we moved here in 1989 with kids, as did all of our neighbors at the time, we have seen a few "movin' on up" to Briar Ridge, a few head south to rural Lowell--the sorts of folks who always seem to want a lot more space--and some to FL, AZ or other warmer weather locales. However, most of them have stuck around and downsized here in St. John or like us, life brought surprises that have delayed the plans to downsize.

It's just our impression that NWIN is not generating the sort of high-paying professional jobs that support the purchase of the many $650-900k homes that are being built on the west side of St. John--coincidentally, the area easiest for commuting into the city or reaching 294 via 394, or driving to the University Park Metra station.

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