Northwest Indiana Population Migration Patterns
When people move to Northwest Indiana, where do they come from? When they leave, where do they go?
Migration into and out of Lake County, IN
Between 2015 and 2019:
22,292 people moved into Lake County from the rest of the U.S.
22,687 people moved out of Lake County to somewhere else in the U.S.
Compare these numbers and Lake County had net domestic population migration of -395. Or, 395 more people moved out of Lake County than to it during this period. Thanks to Census data, we also know where these people moved to/from. The graphic below shows the total net migration flows (i.e. the net change in migration) for Lake County beteween 2015 and 2019 at the county-level. The shading of the counties reflect:
Counties shaded orange (positive) are those where population is overall moving from this county to Lake County.
Counties shaded blue (negative) are those where population is overall moving from Lake County to this county.
Where are Lake County residents moving from?
Between 2015 and 2019 there were 22,292 people who moved into Lake County from the rest of the U.S. Where are the people moving into Lake County coming from?
53% came from Illinois (11,778 people). With more half from Cook County (i.e. Chicago).
30% came from the rest of the state of Indiana (6,650 people). The Indiana counties contributing the most were Howard (+219), Jasper (+210), Elkhart (+153) and DeKalb (+130)
All other states reflect relatively tiny shares of population in-migration to Lake County: 1.6% came from Michigan followed by 1.5% from California, 1.3% from Texas, 1.1% from Florida and 1.0% from Tennessee. All other states were <1%.
I don’t think it would be exaggerating to say that virtually everyone who moves into Lake County is coming from either (1) Illinois or (2) elsewhere in Indiana. There is no other state in the United States from which people move to Lake County in a significant way.
Where are Lake County residents moving to?
While 22,292 people moved into Lake County from the rest of the U.S between 2015 and 2019, there were 22,687 (or 395 more) who moved away from Lake County. Of those moving away from Lake County, 44% moved to another county in Indiana and 18% moved to Illinois. After that, there’s not really another single state to where Lake County residents consistently move. Here are the top 10 counties residents of Lake County move away to:
Porter County, IN (3,293)
Cook County, IL (3,042)
Marion County, IN (1,351)
LaPorte County, IN (856)
Tippecanoe County, IN (516)
Monroe County, IN (441)
San Diego County, CA (399)
Johnson County, IN (354)
Harris County, TX (353)
Newton County, IN (350)
If you think about this list of counties (and the ones after them), a story emerges. Many are counties which provide either better job or education opportunies in a more urban setting (such as Indianapolis, Chicago, Tippecanoe/Purdue, Monroe/IU, San Diego, Houston) Others may provide higher quality of place (Porter and LaPorte are both economically developed with much lower population density away from the urban core of Northwest Indiana).
What about Porter and LaPorte counties?
Below is a similar graphic of total net migration flows for Porter County. It bears a striking resemblane to the one for Lake County above, and in many ways the Chicago-to-Lake relationship is mirrored in a Lake-to-Porter County relationship. While Lake County draws population primarily from Chicago, Porter draws primarily (and about equally) from Chicago and Lake county. The key difference is that while Lake county experienced a net loss of 395 people between 2016-2019, Porter county gained 858 people through migration. Those that did leave Porter County (which was less than arrived) went to counties similar to those that left Lake County.
Likewise, below is the same graphic for LaPorte County. Again, the relationship of eastward movement persists. LaPorte county draws population primarily (again almost equally) from Chicago, Lake and Porter. Here the effects of migration are more dramatic with LaPorte County experiencing a net gain of 2,020 people between 2015-2019, dwarfing the net migration gain of Porter County and (obviously) far better than the net migration loss of Lake County.
What does this all mean?
While this is a generalization, looking at these data gives a strong impression that for many Lake County serves as a “stepping stone” on to greater things. People move here almost exclusively from Chicago (perhaps in search of more affordable housing) or rural Indiana (perhaps in search of economic opportunities). But they don’t stay here. While many move into Lake County, more leave. Those that leave often do so for (flagship) education elsewhere in the state, greater economic opportunities (in the state, Chicago or nationally) or move east (to Porter or LaPorte) for less population density. There is a very clear pipeline of eastward migration happening from Chicago as population move from Chicago into Lake County before on from Lake to Porter and then on from Porter to LaPorte. Fundementally, this is a bad trend for Lake County. The economic health of a region or county depends critically on how attractive that region/county is for people. If people move to a county primarily out of necesscity or as a stepping stone on to great things (rather than a desire to live there long-term) then they will not stay long. This is why initiatives improving the quality of place in Northwest Indiana (particularly in Lake and Porter counties) are so important. For a healthly economy, we want people to choose to live here because of the ammenities and offerings in the county, not as a means to an end.
Finally, remember that the data presented above reflects the time period of 2015 to 2019. More recently (particularly since 2019), we have seen a reverese in this overall trend of negative domestic migration for the Gary Metropolitan area (Lake, Porter, Newton and Jasper counties). This is a sign that initiatives to improve the quality of place in these counties are working. For a strong and healthy Northwest Indiana economy, we need to continue to support and expand these initiatives.
Dig into this data yourself! Most of the data presented here come from the U.S. Census Bureau’s County-to-County Migration Flows data. You can find a neat and easy to use interactive map (from which I generated the graphics above) on the Census Flows Mapper website here: https://flowsmapper.geo.census.gov/map.html
I think a huge issue with Lake County is that it's three counties in one: the historically industrialized lakefront municipalities, the middle band of bedroom communities, and the southern band that remains heavily rural. When my family moved from Lansing to Munster in 1971, St. John might as well have been Terre Haute in the minds of many residents. It was definitely part of the rural band then but will obviously exceed Munster's population within the next 12-24 months. I am fairly certain that more of my classmates from Munster HS who remain Regionites now have Tri-Town or Crown Point addresses than Munster. But as I noted in my previous question, it's as if almost no one we have met since moving to St. John in 1989 works in the Tri-Town, other than health care or legal professionals. Retail and commercial sector jobs don't pay salaries that allow people to buy homes down here.